MSL WEATHER FORECAST
First forecast made on December 9 , 2012 for January 31, (Text updated on July 11, 2013 after the REMS Team revises all its previous weather reports.)
MSL WEATHER FORECAST ISSUED BY BARRY S. ROFFMAN ON 9 DECEMBER 2012. Based in how the REMS team is releasing data so far, it would appear that pressure reported will max out for MSL at about 9.45 hPa to 9.5 hPa around on or around Ls 255 unless there is a major dust storm (in which case, pressure will max out at 9.9 to 10 hPa). Ls 255 will occur on January 31, 2013. However, the following areas of REMS and Ashima MSP weather reports are nonsense or problematic: For the REMS reports there has been zero variation in the winds. They are always 2 m/s from the East every single day from Sol 15 (August 22, 2012) through Sol 120 (December 7, 2012). Likewise the relative humidity has been reported only as --% (that is, no data reported). Ashima always lists the sunrise as 6 AM and sunset at 5 PM. This is nonsense. It is spring at MSL and day length should be longer than night time, not an hour less. My son and I hope to post an accurate calendar for sunrise and sunset times for MSL in the next two weeks.
UPDATE OF JULY 11, 2013. When the above forecast was issued the average pressure was about 8.654 hPa. By February 2013 the REMS Team reported that pressure reached what was a maximum so far with 9.25 hPa on January 29. It was 9.2447 hPa on January 31, 2013 for what was labeled Sol 174 (although, in typical REMS/Ashima fashion they published another January 31 report for a Sol numbered 173 with a pressure of 9.20 hPa). HOWEVER, ON JULY 3, 2013 THE REMS TEAM ALTERED ALL ITS POSTED DATA. The new report that they issue showed that pressure reached 9.4 hPA (940 Pa) on February 19, 2013 (Sol 192). Pressures were unavailable for the next two days. So far no dust storms have reached MSL, nor have we seen the normal spiral cloud and eye wall over Arsia Mons. Ashima Research and the REMS Team continued to list all wind reports as 2 m/s from the East and all relative humidity seen as --% (that is, no data reported). until early May, when they gavae in to our demand and changed all winds to N/A. The pressure seemed to reach its peak less than three weeks after the predicted January 31 date that I issued back on December 9, but it was very close to the amount that we predicted to be put out by the REMS Team. In fact, using the 9.45 to 9.5 hPa that we predicted, 9.4 hPa predicted is an agreement of 99.47% to 98.95%. However in estimating the maximum pressure based on Viking 2 pressure curve, there were global dust storms then, but not this year. By July it was apparent that the parties responsible for Mars weather reporting were also revising temperatures downward significantly in an effort to produce (artificial) results that were more in lined with pre-MSL beliefs. We do not believe that all MSL weather scientists are born liars, but we believe that whenever data is produced that is a little too friendly to supporting life on Mars now, or in the past, the data is being changed on a regular basis to squash those hopes and discourage serious efforts to procure funding for a manned mission to Mars.
Eventually this battle may require transfer from an academic internet forum to a court of law, but it is still unclear if the guilty party is NASA itself or technicians trying to cover their butts. My best guess now is that one of two things is going on. Either the Vaisala pressure sensor has malfunctioned or the REMS Team is feeding NASA, JPL and Ashima Research nonsense based on where they think the pressures and temperatures should be based on the Viking pressure curves shown on Figure 1 below; or JPL has ordered the deliberate publication of disinformation. Certainly the easiest to prove bits of disinformation published were the sunrise and sunset times which were solely the product of Ashima Research. They had been notified by me (on multiple occasions) about this problem, and except for a single instance on October 2, 2012 for Sol 56 when they listed sunrise at 5:32 AM and sunset at 5:09 PM (also wrong) they long insisted on sunrise as 6 AM and sunset at 5 PM for every day. The length of day light on Mars has been shown on our weather reports for October 1, 2012 forward in a yellow column. In May 2012 Ashima accepted out figures and issued a weak excuse. In July, 2013 the REMS Team also started to use our figures (within a minute or two due to their rounding off both sunrise and sunset to the nearest minute).